Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x4197…039d world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$5
world 48% −$4
sports 2% −$5
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 4 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 25% -15.2%
all 4 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 25% -15.2%
10% -32.4% 25% -23.3%
15% -38.9% 0% -30.7%
20% -44.9% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage56d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $107 $102 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +34%
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 23 $6 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $110 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $96 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $100 41h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? BUY Up 74¢ $4 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 55d
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season BUY Esprit Shōnen 23¢ $6 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.61 · official $101.61 (match) · 8 history records