Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x4194…9809 world 62 markets active 3h ago coverage 92d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$11,096 (-23%) realized −$11,129 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$780per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$25,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$4,519
other 2% −$239
finance 2% −$570
tech 2% −$540
economics 1% +$28
politics 0% +$25
sports 0% −$24
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 25% +14.2%
≤30d 15 +22.6% +10.9% 67% 53% +16.6%
≤90d 48 -7.1% -16.0% 56% 38% +11.3%
all 60 -21.3% -28.8% 45% 30% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 30% +4.0%
10% -35.6% 27% -5.9%
15% -41.9% 15% -15.0%
20% -47.6% 7% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$51 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$25,133
Realized−$11,129
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage92d
Avg bet$780
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 54¢ $24,900 $24,943 +$43 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $10,019 +$2,749 +27%
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Jun 18 $43 −$28 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $66 −$28 -42%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 18 $206 +$13 +6%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 15 $154 +$51 +33%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $86 +$116 +136%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 15 $116 +$7 +6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $45 −$10 -23%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +61%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,700 +$702 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +245%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $600 +$226 +38%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $700 +$142 +20%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 18 $30 −$3 -12%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 11 - May 17 be between May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 11 - May 17 be between May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $555 +$48 +9%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? May 12 $15 −$14 -99%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 12 $112 −$38 -34%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings? May 08 $5 $0 +9%
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings? May 08 $15 +$5 +33%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 06 $430 +$25 +6%
Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ares Management (ARES) beat quarterly earnings? May 01 $26 +$12 +45%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $53 +$47 +88%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $71 −$32 -45%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $202 +$11 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $15 −$7 -49%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $29 −$21 -73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 01 $1,500 +$49 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 01 $250 +$8 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $1,100 +$397 +36%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 16 $207 −$71 -34%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 13 $120 −$8 -6%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $84 +$16 +19%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 09 $77 +$23 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $250 +$107 +43%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Mar 31 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 26 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 26 $31 −$23 -74%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 26 $80 +$20 +26%
Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March? Mar 24 $149 −$133 -90%
Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? Mar 24 $533 −$417 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $24,900 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $12,768 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $3,113 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $600 4d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? SELL No 19¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $38 4d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $219 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $207 7d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY No 50¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $1,000 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 56¢ $2,500 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $2,000 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $300 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $23 7d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 74¢ $205 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $2,200 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $201 8d
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL No 60¢ $124 8d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 8d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 8d
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $3,000 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $2,402 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $283 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,132.81 · official $25,132.81 (match) · 326 history records