Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4193…4853 sports 679 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,214 (-7%) realized −$3,211 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%349W / 324L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$648est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$216
14 days+$164
30 days−$2,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,414
politics 0% +$46
other 0% +$23
world 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.9% +19.4% 71% 71% +3.4%
≤30d 223 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 51% -20.9%
≤90d 673 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 51% -16.0%
all 673 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 51% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 51% -16.0%
10% -18.0% 50% -24.0%
15% -25.9% 47% -31.4%
20% -33.2% 44% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$69 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$3,211
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses349 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$648
Open positions6
Markets (closed)673 / 679
History coverage71d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ 56¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 278 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $281 +$251 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $157 +$124 +79%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $94 +$62 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $59 +$36 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $330 −$325 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $274 +$114 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $321 −$47 -15%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $67 +$33 +50%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $69 +$31 +46%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $66 +$34 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $81 +$19 +23%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $53 +$47 +89%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $51 +$49 +96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $46 +$54 +117%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $58 +$42 +72%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $64 +$36 +56%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $47 +$53 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $330 +$320 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 14 $56 −$13 -23%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $134 −$132 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $39 +$48 +124%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $212 −$210 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $115 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $117 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $51 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $44 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $121 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $281 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $157 4d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $37 4d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $3 4d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $3 4d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $51 4d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $59 5d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 50¢ $25 5d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 50¢ $51 5d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 50¢ $254 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $274 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $274 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $321 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 46¢ $47 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $57 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $67 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $69 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 65¢ $66 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $56 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 81¢ $81 8d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 60¢ $61 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.48 · official $495.50 (match) · 1734 history records