Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x418f…5f3b
crypto · 488 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$149 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$161 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses355 / 128
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions5
Markets (closed)483 / 488
History coverage83d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 5 History 483 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$3
14 days−$47
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 62¢ 64¢ $79 $82 +$3 (+4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 20¢ 20¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$4 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$13 +32%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -93%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $76 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $46 +$6 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $25 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +129%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% −$155
crypto 23% +$3
other 8% −$17
world 7% +$5
finance 1% −$1
politics 1% +$5
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 20¢ $3 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 52m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $0 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.1% -28.6% 44% 28% -10.3%
≤30d 277 -3.9% -13.1% 82% 19% -9.5%
≤90d 483 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 20% -11.4%
all 483 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 20% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 20% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 8% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 4% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.52 · official $109.52 (match) · 3500 history records