Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
41 0x418e…edca crypto 17 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-8%) realized −$19 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$34
crypto 23% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -21.6% -29.0% 20% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 16 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 25% -21.8%
≤90d 16 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 25% -21.8%
all 16 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 25% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -21.8%
10% -28.8% 12% -29.3%
15% -35.7% 6% -36.1%
20% -42.0% 6% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $500 $466 −$34 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.60 · official $465.60 (match) · 41 history records