Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x418d…0595 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$432 (-0%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%51W / 3L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,406per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days−$964
14 days−$687
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$90
sports 36% +$925
other 19% −$1,320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 54 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 54 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 0% -9.7%
all 54 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$4,451) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$615 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses51 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3,406
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,854 +$141 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,949 +$51 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,971 +$29 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $168 +$10 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,961 +$39 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,844 −$1,840 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,960 +$40 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $980 +$20 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,081 +$35 +3%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $322 +$3 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $970 +$30 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $922 +$78 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,001 +$34 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $980 +$20 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 13 $4,761 +$4 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,958 +$42 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,767 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $1,895 +$2 +0%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2,149 +$22 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $413 −$4 -1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,961 +$39 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,685 +$17 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,960 +$40 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,970 +$27 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $8,342 +$8 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,910 +$90 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 4? Jun 05 $263 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $3,929 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $11,989 +$11 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $2,970 +$30 +1%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $2,940 +$60 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $9,981 +$19 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $5,024 +$55 +1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $981 +$19 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,116 +$1 +0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $5,940 +$60 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 30? May 31 $13,986 +$14 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,960 +$40 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $4,451 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,995 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $296 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,558 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,806 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $342 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $489 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,826 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $127 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $65 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $132 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,971 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,747 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records