Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x418d…88a3 sports 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 714d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,237 (+1%) realized +$30,490 · open −$3,253
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%110W / 88L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$9,320per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$19,129est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 714d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$12,748
other 3% +$2,775
politics 0% −$2,663
world 0% −$920
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 44% -12.4%
≤30d 78 -7.3% -16.2% 53% 50% -32.5%
≤90d 193 -1.7% -11.0% 55% 54% -9.0%
all 198 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 54% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 54% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 51% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 46% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 41% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$10,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,828 vs −$7,112 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$6,456
Realized+$30,490
Unrealized−$3,253
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses110 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$19,129
Open positions5
Markets (closed)198 / 203
History coverage714d
Avg bet$9,320
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $3,300 $3,272 −$28 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1,449 $1,171 −$278 (-19%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $1,071 $1,060 −$10 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $940 $950 +$10 (+1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ $2,949 $2 −$2,947 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $915 −$900 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $3,558 −$3,520 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $743 +$1,257 +169%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $981 −$980 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $1,160 +$1,040 +90%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $975 +$1,025 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $573 −$562 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $1,087 −$1,071 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $980 +$1,020 +104%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $1,171 −$1,155 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $370 −$360 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,087 +$1,013 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,825 +$1,175 +42%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $988 −$980 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $835 −$820 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $955 −$940 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $3,045 +$1,455 +48%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1,630 +$970 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,990 +$510 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,468 +$1,032 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $429 −$420 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40,909 +$1,091 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $1,822 +$1,178 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $955 +$1,045 +109%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $3,584 −$3,540 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $3,606 +$2,144 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $407 −$400 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $3,209 +$1,991 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5,678 +$3,322 +58%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $1,579 −$1,560 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,851 −$1,830 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $4,041 +$2,959 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $935 −$920 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $430 −$420 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2,268 +$2,032 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $5,360 −$5,360 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10,840 −$10,800 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16,173 −$16,000 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,244 −$1,225 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1,605 +$995 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1,990 +$2,010 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2,230 +$1,770 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $2,822 −$2,790 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3,449 +$2,051 +60%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1,836 +$2,163 +118%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2,387 −$2,350 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3,340 5m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,087 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $955 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,973 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,000 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $915 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $3,558 7h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $44 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $1 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 31h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 31h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $1 31h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $10 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $39 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $1 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $1 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $12 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $1 31h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $673 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,456.25 · official $6,456.25 (match) · 2084 history records