Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x418b…a741 crypto 1872 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,390 (-12%) realized −$7,390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%1254W / 908L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$442
sports 29% −$241
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 588 -57.3% -61.3% 34% 22% -65.1%
≤30d 990 -33.9% -40.2% 51% 33% -49.0%
≤90d 2162 -18.6% -26.3% 58% 44% -36.2%
all 2162 -18.6% -26.3% 58% 44% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 44% -36.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 30% -42.3%
15% -39.8% 22% -47.9%
20% -45.7% 15% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$40 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1254 / 908
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2162 / 1872
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2162 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Caracas FC vs. Metropolitanos FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
FC Fredericia vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
SBV Excelsior vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Modena FC 2018 vs. Cesena FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. Monagas SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
CF América vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $335 −$335 -100%
Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$25 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $88 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $82 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records