Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x418b…aa8e crypto 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%129W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day72.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$206
14 days−$240
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$203
sports 7% −$54
other 3% +$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -26.5% -33.5% 34% 30% -22.6%
≤30d 394 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 30% -18.6%
≤90d 394 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 30% -18.6%
all 394 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 30% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 30% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 26% -26.3%
15% -41.6% 22% -33.5%
20% -47.3% 18% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses129 / 265
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)394 / 394
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 394 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $12 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$6 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$11 -59%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$6 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$6 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$3 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$8 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -25%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $6 −$4 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 37¢ $4 2h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 10¢ $4 2h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 10¢ $6 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $16 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $8 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 2¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 8¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $22 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1535 history records