Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x418b…3a98 other 217 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$433 (+1%) realized +$404 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%39W / 171L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,177
7 days−$4,051
14 days−$2,624
30 days−$1,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$950
politics 13% −$117
sports 11% +$589
economics 5% −$49
world 1% −$89
crypto 1% −$22
tech 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -37.7% -43.6% 10% 6% -24.1%
≤30d 169 -3.9% -13.1% 18% 15% -12.7%
≤90d 210 -0.7% -10.2% 19% 16% -10.5%
all 210 -0.7% -10.2% 19% 16% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 16% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 13% -19.1%
15% -26.6% 10% -26.9%
20% -33.8% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$35 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$404
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses39 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions7
Markets (closed)210 / 217
History coverage50d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $324 $378 +$54 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 37¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,881 −$55 -3%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $238 −$235 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $442 −$3 -1%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $592 −$53 -9%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 16 $17 −$8 -49%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -22%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $35 −$5 -15%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $91 −$79 -86%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $21 −$14 -66%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $135 −$129 -95%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $410 −$161 -39%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 16 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $143 −$143 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 16 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 16 $527 −$415 -79%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $352 −$250 -71%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $572 −$306 -54%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 16 $228 −$212 -93%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $41 −$39 -96%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 16 $316 −$287 -91%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $547 −$35 -6%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $27 −$3 -11%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,629 −$39 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,114 −$77 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $679 −$16 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,992 −$9 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,131 −$21 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,533 −$72 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $50 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $81 14h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $238 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 88¢ $11 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 88¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 88¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 88¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 88¢ $365 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 88¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 87¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 87¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $442 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $72 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 17h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 17h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $438 25h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $74 25h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $274 25h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $274 25h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 26h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $116 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.16 · official $504.15 (match) · 1244 history records