Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x418a…64c0 crypto 1263 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$297 (-5%) realized −$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate57%767W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$126
14 days−$1,320
30 days−$1,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$199
weather 31% −$187
other 3% −$34
sports 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -87.1% -88.4% 0% 0% -19.8%
≤30d 498 -95.5% -95.9% 1% 1% -55.8%
≤90d 1353 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 26% -15.6%
all 1353 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 26% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 26% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 23% -23.7%
15% -37.7% 17% -31.1%
20% -43.8% 12% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses767 / 586
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1353 / 1263
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1353 Trades
no open positions (141 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL No 33¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 33¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 60¢ $71 29h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 60¢ $72 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 32h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 62¢ $46 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 62¢ $47 34h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? SELL No 58¢ $63 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $65 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? SELL No 49¢ $61 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY No 62¢ $78 37h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL No 39¢ $42 38h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 46¢ $51 38h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 55¢ $221 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $27 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $28 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $28 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $28 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $28 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 56¢ $48 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 57¢ $142 41h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 42¢ $36 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records