Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x418a…e11e other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 759d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%76W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$77
sports 10% +$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$9
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 78 -1.6% -10.9% 97% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$44 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

759d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses76 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage759d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $339 $339 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 26 $339 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 17 $336 +$3 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $331 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 18 $331 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 04 $325 +$6 +2%
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 20 $323 +$1 +0%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 14 $322 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Dec 31 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 19? Dec 31 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? Nov 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Oct 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 5? Sep 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 25? Aug 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15? Aug 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Aug 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 14 $60 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Astaria airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Rainbow airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Aleo airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Avail airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20? Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth March 21-28? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $339 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $339 70d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $336 74d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $331 127d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $331 142d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $325 156d
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $323 163d
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $322 177d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY No 100¢ $112 219d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 19? BUY No 100¢ $210 219d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $102 228d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $102 247d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 BUY No 100¢ $101 277d
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 5? BUY No 100¢ $101 293d
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 304d
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 304d
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 304d
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? SELL No 100¢ $5 304d
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? BUY No 100¢ $55 304d
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29? BUY No 99¢ $50 304d
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 304d
Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 318d
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $104 347d
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? BUY No 100¢ $14 351d
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? BUY No 100¢ $30 351d
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? BUY No 100¢ $60 351d
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 366d
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 366d
Avail airdrop in Q2 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 366d
Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025? BUY No 99¢ $10 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.83 · official $338.83 (match) · 173 history records