Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4189…d9f5 other 9 markets active 7h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-18%) realized −$11 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.3% -55.9% 25% 25% -40.4%
≤30d 8 -51.3% -55.9% 25% 25% -40.4%
≤90d 8 -51.3% -55.9% 25% 25% -40.4%
all 8 -51.3% -55.9% 25% 25% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.9% 25% -40.4%
10% -60.2% 25% -46.1%
15% -64.0% 25% -51.3%
20% -67.5% 12% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +111%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $3 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 59¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.25 · official $7.25 (match) · 20 history records