Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4188…7daa other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$97
sports 5% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 33% -12.4%
≤30d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 33% -12.4%
≤90d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 33% -12.4%
all 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 33% -12.4%
10% -19.6% 33% -20.8%
15% -27.3% 33% -28.5%
20% -34.5% 33% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$55 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $248 +$17 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$89 +87%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $231 −$133 -58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $124 46m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 56m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $141 58m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $190 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $98 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $180 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records