Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x4186…7513 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$582 (+33%) realized +$752 · open −$170
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 30L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$687
7 days+$688
14 days+$659
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$441
other 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +80.6% +63.4% 50% 46% +85.7%
≤30d 53 +31.5% +18.9% 43% 42% +26.6%
≤90d 53 +31.5% +18.9% 43% 42% +26.6%
all 53 +31.5% +18.9% 43% 42% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 42% +26.6%
10% +7.6% 42% +14.5%
15% -2.8% 40% +3.4%
20% -12.4% 34% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +61% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$26 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$752
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage25d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ $60 $13 −$47 (-78%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $10 −$28 (-75%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ $24 $9 −$15 (-61%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 12¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $51 +$226 +442%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$201 +784%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$141 +276%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $21 +$113 +549%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 +$14 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $21 +$104 +510%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$59 +116%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +89%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $35 +$68 +194%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$15 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $40 −$39 -98%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 09 $35 −$34 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $25 +$30 +122%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $52 +$22 +42%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Karolina Pliskova vs. McCartney Kessler: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $32 +$42 +132%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $19 −$19 -98%
CD Garcilaso vs. ADC Juan Pablo II College: O/U 5.5 May 30 $18 −$18 -97%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $30 −$29 -97%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $21 +$10 +49%
Orlando Pride vs. Bay FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $25 +$44 +178%
EC Juventude vs. América FC: O/U 5.5 May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Jacob Fearnley vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 2.5 May 25 $71 −$70 -98%
CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 3.5 May 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Urhobo vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 May 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Akasha Urhobo vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 25 $10 +$17 +165%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Alycia Parks vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Parks vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 21.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Svitolina vs. Bondar: Match O/U 22.5 May 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Elina Svitolina vs. Anna Bondar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 25 $10 +$20 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $25 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $61 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $50 20h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $30 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $26 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $277 22h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $227 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $10 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 24h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $26 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $51 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $133 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $11 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $52 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $38 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $20 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $10 32h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 27¢ $51 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $20 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.61 · official $51.61 (match) · 90 history records