Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4184…c5d6 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -7.7%
≤30d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -7.7%
≤90d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -7.7%
all 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 50% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 17% -16.6%
15% -17.2% 17% -24.6%
20% -25.3% 17% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $78 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$28 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records