Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4181…de86
other · 56 markets active 18h ago
1.5score
+$9,055 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,971 · open −$1,246
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,781
Realized+$5,971
Unrealized−$1,246
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses32 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)48 / 56
History coverage73d
Avg bet$1,061
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 10 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$139
14 days−$2,297
30 days−$1,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 64¢ 38¢ $3,305 $1,992 −$1,313 (-40%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $715 $905 +$190 (+27%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $729 $591 −$138 (-19%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $676 $453 −$223 (-33%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 57¢ $50 $336 +$286 (+571%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $195 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $259 $169 −$90 (-35%)
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 16¢ 83¢ $10 $52 +$42 (+435%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 08 $598 −$139 -23%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 04 $521 −$366 -70%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 02 $930 +$1,689 +182%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,655 +$713 +43%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $2,690 +$31 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31? Jun 01 $367 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31? Jun 01 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31? Jun 01 $687 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31? Jun 01 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on May 31? Jun 01 $479 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $610b on May 31? Jun 01 $564 +$2 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market May 31 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 31 $194 +$4 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $478 −$144 -30%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $135 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $135 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $170 +$3 +2%
Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $2,899 −$1,594 -55%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $3,376 −$1,543 -46%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $4,589 −$985 -22%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $3,259 +$14 +0%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 28 $489 +$515 +105%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 28 $329 −$52 -16%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 27 $293 −$162 -55%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? May 27 $132 +$168 +127%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 25 $211 −$20 -10%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 22 $490 −$219 -45%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 21 $543 +$477 +88%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 20 $361 −$6 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 20 $265 +$143 +54%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 13 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $1,277 −$43 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 14 $304 −$8 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $762 −$415 -54%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $538 −$61 -11%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $897 +$777 +87%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 12 $838 +$80 +10%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 11 $863 +$1,010 +117%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $260 +$157 +61%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 09 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 09 $93 +$84 +90%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $998 +$441 +44%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 01 $1,146 +$3,204 +280%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $2,414 +$2,194 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$3,783
tech 45% −$328
crypto 6% +$1,113
sports 0% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $25 18h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 46¢ $224 23h
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $25 26h
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $16 29h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $18 45h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $18 45h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $147 2d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $190 2d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $281 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 4¢ $75 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 4¢ $89 2d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $64 3d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $59 3d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 50¢ $456 3d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 63¢ $0 4d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 63¢ $74 4d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 5d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $219 6d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 63¢ $595 6d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 64¢ $3,744 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $476 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $7 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 3¢ $158 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -23.2% -30.6% 0% 0% -30.6%
≤30d 32 +7.6% -2.7% 66% 19% -14.2%
≤90d 48 +20.5% +9.1% 67% 29% +4.6%
all 48 +20.5% +9.1% 67% 29% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 29% +4.6%
10% -1.4% 29% -5.4%
15% ← realistic here -10.9% 29% -14.6%
20% -19.6% 25% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,780.74 · official $4,780.80 (match) · 3500 history records