Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4181…a4fd
other · 58 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$22
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage571d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $125 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 10 $6 +$6 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $7 +$12 +172%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $11 +$6 +59%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +1%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 27 $26 +$28 +108%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 25 $19 +$22 +113%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 156.5 Mar 23 $21 +$22 +103%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 66% −$13
politics 21% −$11
other 10% −$17
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$42
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 18d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 24d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $112 26d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $112 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $125 31d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $125 31d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 58¢ $10 31d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 32d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 33d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 62¢ $7 33d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $114 36d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $114 36d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $109 37d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $109 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -16.7% -24.7% 17% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 49 +3.3% -6.5% 24% 16% -9.0%
all 57 +2.8% -7.0% 25% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 14% -9.5%
10% -15.9% 14% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 14% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.64 · official $21.64 (match) · 264 history records