Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x417f…48df crypto 228 markets active 2d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%151W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$491
14 days−$487
30 days−$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$38
sports 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -10.6% -19.1% 65% 52% -18.8%
≤30d 145 -9.1% -17.7% 66% 54% -18.4%
≤90d 145 -9.1% -17.7% 66% 54% -18.4%
all 228 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 54% -10.3%
10% -20.0% 34% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 20% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses151 / 77
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage98d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $57 −$57 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $29 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$30 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$19 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $110 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 53¢ $7 37h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 83¢ $50 38h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 100¢ $34 38h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 88¢ $30 38h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Darya Astakhova 99¢ $49 39h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 58¢ $29 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 681 history records