Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x417f…d9a9 crypto 393 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$373 (+6%) realized +$377 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%206W / 185L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$478
14 days+$478
30 days+$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$88
sports 18% +$462
other 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 48% +29.4%
≤30d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 48% +29.4%
≤90d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 48% +29.4%
all 391 -0.9% -10.4% 53% 50% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 50% -3.2%
10% -18.9% 46% -12.5%
15% -26.8% 41% -20.9%
20% -33.9% 35% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses206 / 185
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)391 / 393
History coverage104d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 +$25 +83%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $107 +$95 +90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $141 +$62 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $196 +$70 +36%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $80 +$9 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$59 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $301 +$280 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 23 $87 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 23 $125 −$123 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 23 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 23 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 23 $8 +$13 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 23 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 22 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 22 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 22 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 22 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 22 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 22 $18 +$36 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 22 $35 +$23 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $71 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $30 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $107 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $20 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $141 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $20 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $196 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $80 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $20 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.89 · official $235.89 (match) · 1162 history records