Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x417d…3a5c other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$342 (+104%) realized +$347 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$37
sports 13% −$7
world 8% $0
politics 7% −$15
crypto 6% +$402
economics 2% −$5
culture 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -53.6% -58.0% 20% 20% -41.8%
≤90d 9 -55.7% -59.9% 11% 11% -45.6%
all 31 +35.2% +22.4% 32% 26% +55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 26% +55.2%
10% +10.7% 26% +40.3%
15% -0.0% 23% +26.8%
20% -9.8% 19% +14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +160% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 129.02992748706993% → late -52.67254871588274% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$5 · ×8.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)31 / 44
History coverage141d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $3 $0 +5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Stefon Diggs suspended this season? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 16 $20 +$18 +90%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 15 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $2 +$7 +335%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $5 +$3 +70%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $3 +$6 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January? Feb 01 $11 +$412 +3746%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 27 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $2 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $3 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 11d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 63d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 63d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 72d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $47 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $20 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 105d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $79 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 8¢ $5 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 119d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 3¢ $2 119d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 53¢ $20 120d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 48¢ $20 120d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 121d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 121d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 62¢ $10 121d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 122d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 123d
Stefon Diggs suspended this season? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 123d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 123d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 34¢ $5 123d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 123d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 125d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 125d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 125d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.49 · official $41.49 (match) · 220 history records