Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x417d…ddf7
crypto · 1559 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$21 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses287 / 1271
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1558 / 1559
History coverage20d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1558 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$50
14 days+$17
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 32¢ 38¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$11 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$12 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$22 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$22 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$28 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 4% -7.7%
≤30d 1558 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 1558 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 2% -9.7%
all 1558 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.09 · official $7.35 · 3500 history records