Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x417a…08a5 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate85%22W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1
crypto 16% $0
politics 3% $0
world 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.6% -6.3% 50% 17% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +1.7% -8.0% 79% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 26 +1.4% -8.3% 85% 4% -9.3%
all 26 +1.4% -8.3% 85% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.26 per $1 lost it wins $8.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses22 / 4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)26 / 35
History coverage44d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 94¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 18 $200 $0 -0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 22? May 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $205 2d
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $200 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $14 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $202 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $202 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $27 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 24d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 30d
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 98¢ $5 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 30d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.37 · official $402.37 (match) · 95 history records