Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4179…7de0 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 17% -11.9%
≤30d 27 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 19% -20.3%
≤90d 55 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 35% -15.6%
all 69 -5.8% -14.8% 61% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 41% -14.2%
10% -22.9% 29% -22.4%
15% -30.4% 23% -29.9%
20% -37.2% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage152d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 25 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 20 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 04 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 04 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 04 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 28 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 23 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 02 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 21 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 21 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 21 $1 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records