Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

41 0x4177…3f70 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,228 (-14%) realized −$1,220 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate63%12W / 7L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$390per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Fees−$81est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+5.2%	-4.8%	63%	53%	-21.3%
≤30d	19	+5.2%	-4.8%	63%	53%	-21.3%
≤90d	19	+5.2%	-4.8%	63%	53%	-21.3%
all	19	+5.2%	-4.8%	63%	53%	-21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	53%	-21.3%
10%	-13.9%	47%	-28.8%
15%	-22.2%	37%	-35.7%
20%	-29.9%	26%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$504) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -8% → late +17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$136 vs −$389 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$242

Realized−$1,220

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses12 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$81

Open positions3

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage6d

Avg bet$390

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Over	38¢	36¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$1,213	+$106	+9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$101	−$91	-90%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$90	−$2	-2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$51	+$39	+77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$598	+$66	+11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$101	−$63	-62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$109	+$41	+38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$185	+$125	+67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$399	+$129	+32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$80	+$75	+93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$348	+$131	+38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$100	+$6	+6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$102	+$107	+105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$504	−$470	-93%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	+$132	+128%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$1,994	+$680	+34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$149	−$147	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$1,997	−$1,847	-92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	38¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	82¢	$801	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$518	2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	49¢	$518	2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	64¢	$695	6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	7¢	$10	14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	26¢	$88	15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	64¢	$90	17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	35¢	$51	18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$664	18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	25¢	$90	19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	27¢	$38	19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$598	37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$101	37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	72¢	$109	37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$185	43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$399	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$80	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$348	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	21¢	$102	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$102	3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	5¢	$34	3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	72¢	$504	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$38	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	13¢	$38	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	12¢	$159	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.79 · official $241.79 (match) · 43 history records