Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4176…a875 sports 34 markets active 18h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,823 (-25%) realized −$1,687 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$992
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -39.4% -45.1% 25% 12% -32.8%
≤30d 8 -39.4% -45.1% 25% 12% -32.8%
≤90d 8 -39.4% -45.1% 25% 12% -32.8%
all 8 -39.4% -45.1% 25% 12% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.1% 12% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 12% -39.3%
15% -55.2% 12% -45.1%
20% -59.6% 12% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$489 vs −$306 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,764
Realized−$1,687
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions26
Markets (closed)8 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $150 $198 +$48 (+32%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $150 $164 +$14 (+10%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-5%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $150 $136 −$14 (-9%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $150 $136 −$14 (-10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $150 $134 −$16 (-10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $150 $134 −$16 (-11%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $150 $134 −$16 (-11%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $150 $133 −$17 (-12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $150 $131 −$19 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $507 −$34 -7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $506 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $510 +$974 +191%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 −$500 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 17h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 17h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 17h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $473 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $511 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $153 17h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 17h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 17h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 17h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 17h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $153 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 17h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 17h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $153 17h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 17h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 17h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 17h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 17h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,764.11 · official $3,764.17 (match) · 37 history records