Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4176…8f3d other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-30%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$31
politics 37% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.6% -20.0% 60% 40% -1.4%
≤30d 5 -11.6% -20.0% 60% 40% -1.4%
≤90d 5 -11.6% -20.0% 60% 40% -1.4%
all 7 -36.9% -42.9% 43% 29% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 29% -37.7%
10% -48.4% 14% -43.7%
15% -53.3% 0% -49.1%
20% -57.9% 0% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$52 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage131d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $172 −$3 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $141 +$32 +23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Shafiqur Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after th Feb 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $169 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $172 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 3d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 7¢ $70 130d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 12¢ $30 130d
Will Shafiqur Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after th BUY Yes 29¢ $29 130d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 17¢ $20 130d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 26¢ $54 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records