Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x4176…3553 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$13
politics 34% −$10
sports 8% +$16
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -4.7% -13.8% 4% 2% -9.7%
all 111 -5.5% -14.5% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -22.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -30.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -37.0% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage118d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $264 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $276 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $202 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $177 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $444 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $423 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $443 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $184 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $403 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $437 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $474 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 14 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $32 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $30 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 24d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $166 24d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $166 26d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 26d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.91 · official $101.91 (match) · 313 history records