Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
41 0x4176…fd86 crypto 516 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,760 (-5%) realized −$1,700 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%210W / 297L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$378
14 days+$340
30 days−$2,483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,996
other 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +69.3% +53.2% 29% 27% +45.6%
≤30d 290 -15.2% -23.3% 39% 32% -32.0%
≤90d 371 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 38% -13.1%
all 507 -16.4% -24.4% 41% 31% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 31% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 24% -23.3%
15% -38.2% 17% -30.7%
20% -44.3% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$1,700
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses210 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)507 / 516
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? No 12¢ 13¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? No 4¢ 2¢ $48 $28 −$20 (-42%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 30? No 3¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-80%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-82%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? No 4¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$14 (-93%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? Jun 28 $41 +$17 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 28 $47 +$60 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $29 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $28 −$7 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $63 +$97 +154%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $39 +$51 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $47 +$98 +210%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 29? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $6 −$5 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$15 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $12 +$110 +927%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$13 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $14 +$20 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$17 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $18 +$52 +296%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$22 +795%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$24 +420%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY No 4¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY No 4¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY No 4¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? SELL No 7¢ $58 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No 15¢ $58 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? BUY No 13¢ $14 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? BUY No 12¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? BUY No 12¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? BUY No 12¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No 18¢ $28 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No 17¢ $21 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 4¢ $19 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 4¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 4¢ $1 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 0¢ $2 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 0¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 0¢ $4 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 3¢ $2 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY No 0¢ $0 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 6¢ $23 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 4¢ $28 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 7¢ $8 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 7¢ $15 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.03 · official $68.73 · 3500 history records