Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4174…18fa
weather · 397 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$614 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$618 · open −$393
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,194
Realized−$618
Unrealized−$393
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 62
Open positions481
Markets (closed)88 / 397
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2435.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 481 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$618
7 days−$618
14 days−$618
30 days−$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? No 89¢ 92¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 89¢ 97¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 79¢ 86¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 89¢ 85¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? No 79¢ 84¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 92¢ 90¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+224%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 68¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 72¢ $4 $13 +$9 (+250%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $43 −$21 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$9 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $67 −$47 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$13 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $121 −$20 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $65 −$45 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$45 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$23 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$15 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 −$53 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 −$20 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $39 −$29 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$609
other 7% −$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 4¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 4¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -33.9% -40.2% 30% 6% -36.7%
≤30d 88 -33.9% -40.2% 30% 6% -36.7%
≤90d 88 -33.9% -40.2% 30% 6% -36.7%
all 88 -33.9% -40.2% 30% 6% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2435.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.2% 6% -36.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.9% 3% -42.7%
15% -51.2% 1% -48.3%
20% -55.9% 1% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,193.92 · official $1,187.02 (match) · 3500 history records