Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4171…5c96 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized −$88 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$18
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$9
other 34% −$68
politics 13% −$37
world 8% +$9
tech 6% −$4
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -25.5% -32.6% 56% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 41 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 41% -10.4%
≤90d 46 -11.3% -19.7% 48% 37% -15.6%
all 46 -11.3% -19.7% 48% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 37% -15.6%
10% -27.4% 30% -23.6%
15% -34.4% 24% -31.0%
20% -40.9% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)46 / 53
History coverage58d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 72¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Up 51¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7AM ET Up 40¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Yes 79¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET Up 32¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? No $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$12 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 09 $22 +$10 +47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 09 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET Jun 03 $22 −$16 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Jun 03 $43 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $22 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET Jun 03 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 03 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $22 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7AM ET Jun 03 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 03 $43 +$16 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7PM ET Jun 02 $22 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET Jun 02 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$5 +43%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $22 −$13 -58%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $21 −$7 -34%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $21 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $22 −$3 -15%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 +$5 +26%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 +$37 +176%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $31 +$17 +55%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 20 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 20 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $53 −$43 -80%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $52 +$3 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 14 $49 −$21 -44%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $52 −$25 -48%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 27m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $0 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $22 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $23 5d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $23 5d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL Yes 88¢ $28 8d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 61¢ $21 9d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $46 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $43 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $13 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.18 · official $74.18 (match) · 99 history records