Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4170…32ed other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,556 (-25%) realized −$1,287 · open −$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$2,197
14 days−$2,199
30 days−$2,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,530
world 1% −$73
sports 1% +$37
politics 0% −$25
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.4% -1.0% 44% 44% -89.8%
≤30d 21 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 38% -89.9%
≤90d 28 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 32% -89.9%
all 36 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -85.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 33% -85.3%
10% -42.2% 22% -86.8%
15% -47.8% 22% -88.0%
20% -52.9% 22% -89.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$107 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized−$1,287
Unrealized−$269
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage114d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $526 $491 −$35 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $272 −$228 (-46%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,298 −$2,291 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-04-06? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliam Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $30 −$23 -78%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 08 $65 +$60 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 28 $3 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $19 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 3d
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $31 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,298 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3,223 7d
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.20 · official $782.20 (match) · 188 history records