Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x416f…5163 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,780 (+18%) realized +$1,327 · open +$453
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,614per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,046
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +22.0%
≤30d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +22.0%
≤90d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +22.0%
all 3 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 100% +22.0%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 67% +10.3%
15% -0.3% 33% -0.4%
20% -10.1% 33% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$531 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5,476
Realized+$1,327
Unrealized+$453
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,614
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 79¢ 89¢ $2,500 $2,825 +$325 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? No 74¢ 78¢ $2,498 $2,628 +$130 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? No 72¢ 66¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,006 +$179 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,036 +$543 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,535 +$872 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 77¢ $344 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $18 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 81¢ $144 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 75¢ $511 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 73¢ $510 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $509 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $162 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $511 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $505 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 76¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $504 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 72¢ $510 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $507 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 71¢ $4 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $4 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $4 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $344 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $515 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 59¢ $522 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $504 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $502 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $506 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $506 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $507 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $507 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $505 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,475.76 · official $5,509.35 (match) · 30 history records