Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x416d…6fd5 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+15%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$51
other 37% +$19
crypto 4% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% +7.2%
≤30d 32 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% +7.2%
≤90d 32 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% +7.2%
all 32 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 56% +7.2%
10% -11.8% 56% -3.0%
15% -20.4% 53% -12.4%
20% -28.2% 44% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 −$6 -22%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -64%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$17 -85%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 +$10 +196%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$10 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +64%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$15 +60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +112%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$8 +166%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$12 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $29 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $40 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 68¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 23h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $40 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 69¢ $32 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $20 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $20 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $3 43h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 43h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 45h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $30 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records