Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4168…4240
sports · 121 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses50 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions29
Markets (closed)92 / 121
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 29 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 41¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 31¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 41¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 83¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $1 +$2 +157%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +125%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$3 -49%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $1 +$1 +106%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $2 +$1 +39%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$2 -45%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$7 +331%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$2
world 10% +$1
other 8% +$4
politics 2% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 99¢ $3 35m
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 33¢ $1 1h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 81¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 1h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 30¢ $1 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 96¢ $5 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 41¢ $2 2h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 66¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 3h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 26¢ $2 4h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 56¢ $2 5h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $1 6h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $2 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $2 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 27¢ $1 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 48¢ $1 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $2 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $2 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $1 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $1 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $2 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $1 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $1 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $1 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $7 9h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +2.6% -7.2% 53% 51% -6.8%
≤30d 92 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 51% -6.5%
≤90d 92 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 51% -6.5%
all 92 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 51% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 51% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 43% -15.5%
15% -23.8% 36% -23.6%
20% -31.2% 27% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.41 · official $37.35 (match) · 259 history records