Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4168…6ffa crypto 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%33W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$39
sports 33% −$7
crypto 26% −$48
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 33% -0.0%
≤30d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 33% -0.0%
≤90d 99 -35.8% -41.9% 33% 25% -11.0%
all 99 -35.8% -41.9% 33% 25% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 25% -11.0%
10% -47.4% 20% -19.5%
15% -52.5% 16% -27.3%
20% -57.2% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 66
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage52d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $10 +$10 +96%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $16 −$13 -82%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $74 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $3 −$3 -89%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $37 −$4 -12%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $16 +$8 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $1 $0 -15%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $59 −$56 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 03 $24 −$6 -26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $70 +$48 +69%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $26 −$5 -18%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $11 +$16 +145%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $13 −$13 -98%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $44 +$48 +110%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$8 +75%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 02 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 02 $1 $0 -5%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 02 $5 −$3 -55%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -97%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 01 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will Comey insult Trump by Friday? May 01 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 $0 +34%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 30 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +20%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 29 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 29 $6 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 20m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 92¢ $20 22m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 22¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Emilio Nava 16¢ $3 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 64¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $79 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 93¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes $0 46d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes $0 46d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $32 46d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $4 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 47d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 47d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 47d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $3 47d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes $3 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 47d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 47d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 82¢ $22 47d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $48 47d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $14 47d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 47d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $1 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.44 · official $24.44 (match) · 275 history records