Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x4160…1125 crypto 447 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+3%) realized +$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%212W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$148
14 days+$138
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$195
other 1% −$64
sports 0% −$8
politics 0% −$17
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +27.3% +15.2% 50% 48% +4.6%
≤30d 146 +6.0% -4.1% 47% 46% +4.4%
≤90d 217 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 46% -7.1%
all 447 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 45% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 45% -7.6%
10% -22.4% 39% -16.4%
15% -29.9% 33% -24.5%
20% -36.8% 26% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses212 / 235
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)447 / 447
History coverage208d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 447 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +74%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$15 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$33 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$18 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $182 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $134 +$48 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$28 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$70 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$60 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$10 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +214%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$32 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $29 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 909 history records