Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x415f…d305 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+14%) realized +$275 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$279
14 days+$217
30 days+$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$193
economics 5% +$12
crypto 4% −$5
world 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +108.7% +88.9% 70% 70% +90.2%
≤30d 43 +18.4% +7.2% 37% 37% +8.6%
≤90d 43 +18.4% +7.2% 37% 37% +8.6%
all 43 +18.4% +7.2% 37% 37% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 37% +8.6%
10% -3.1% 37% -1.8%
15% -12.5% 37% -11.3%
20% -21.0% 37% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$25 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions32
Markets (closed)43 / 75
History coverage12d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 38¢ 42¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 67¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 41¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 35¢ 34¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 21¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 18¢ 18¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 18¢ 18¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$51 +199%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 +$101 +393%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$78 +304%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$26 +102%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$35 +136%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$224 +874%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$31 +124%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$34 +133%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 +$99 +388%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 64¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 20¢ $26 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $25 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 41¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 21¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $25 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 24¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 35¢ $25 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 32¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $25 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $26 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 38¢ $103 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.26 · official $893.28 (match) · 144 history records