Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
41 0x415a…c8bf other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$20
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.0% +19.4% 100% 50% +20.5%
≤30d 3 +35.9% +22.9% 100% 67% +22.9%
≤90d 3 +35.9% +22.9% 100% 67% +22.9%
all 3 +35.9% +22.9% 100% 67% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.9% 67% +22.9%
10% +11.2% 67% +11.1%
15% +0.4% 67% +0.4%
20% -9.4% 33% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $86 $92 +$6 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$11 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 56m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 57m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $33 58m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $88 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.27 · official $276.34 (match) · 16 history records