Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x4158…ce9f world 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$121,196 (+52%) realized +$121,427 · open −$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%163W / 111L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$848per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$37,809
other 12% +$6,890
politics 9% +$8,372
sports 2% +$3,321
crypto 1% +$2,267
finance 1% +$141
tech 0% +$306
economics 0% −$212
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +28.4% +16.1% 61% 53% +25.8%
≤30d 103 +21.9% +10.3% 64% 51% +19.4%
≤90d 252 +24.2% +12.3% 61% 48% +13.2%
all 274 +31.4% +18.9% 59% 47% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.9% 47% +13.3%
10% +7.5% 38% +2.5%
15% ← realistic here -2.8% 30% -7.4%
20% -12.4% 21% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,126) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$473 vs −$164 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,004
Realized+$121,427
Unrealized−$231
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses163 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions3
Markets (closed)274 / 277
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$848
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 68¢ $452 $625 +$172 (+38%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $347 $231 −$117 (-34%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $435 $148 −$287 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $892 −$22 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $833 −$85 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $155 −$15 -10%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $1,119 +$605 +54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $213 −$52 -24%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$22 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $850 +$628 +74%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $184 −$30 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $294 +$143 +48%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $189 −$61 -32%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $656 +$243 +37%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $3,651 +$3,575 +98%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $229 +$50 +22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $797 −$106 -13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,155 +$31 +3%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $418 +$112 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,182 +$126 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4,811 +$903 +19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $400 +$417 +104%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,933 +$1,826 +94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,352 +$1,603 +68%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +293%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,721 +$527 +31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $787 +$1,384 +176%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $243 −$132 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $220 +$189 +86%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $71 −$29 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $554 −$189 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $374 −$35 -9%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,163 +$176 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $204 +$294 +144%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $497 +$247 +50%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $332 +$165 +50%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $512 +$7 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $878 +$215 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $100 −$62 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $252 −$36 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $254 −$254 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,607 −$74 -5%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $503 −$244 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $3,441 +$1,575 +46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,037 +$1,107 +107%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $800 −$25 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $315 −$15 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,368 +$1,258 +53%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $251 +$694 +277%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $467 +$205 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $515 −$515 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4,110 +$770 +19%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $733 −$235 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 39¢ $250 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 39¢ $620 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $210 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 53¢ $39 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $12 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 28¢ $200 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $53 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 29¢ $39 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 50¢ $200 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $192 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $139 3h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $1,090 4h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $14 5h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $0 5h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $0 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $247 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 11h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $31 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $53 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $54 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $87 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $78 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $158 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $114 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $268 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,003.84 · official $1,003.84 (match) · 3500 history records