Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4157…b4a7 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-38%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$5
crypto 26% −$10
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -45.0%
≤30d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -45.0%
≤90d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -45.0%
all 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -45.0%
10% -27.3% 40% -50.3%
15% -34.3% 40% -55.1%
20% -40.7% 20% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 9 history records