Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10.0
score
41 0x4155…fa41 sports 1478 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$46,983 (+20%) realized +$46,983 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate85%1253W / 225L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$779est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,470
7 days+$3,848
14 days+$11,583
30 days+$14,620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$21,988
other 48% +$18,617
world 2% +$431
crypto 1% +$316
finance 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +25.8% +13.9% 85% 54% -2.1%
≤30d 407 +31.8% +19.2% 86% 59% +2.0%
≤90d 1478 +33.6% +20.9% 85% 55% +6.2%
all 1478 +33.6% +20.9% 85% 55% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.9% 55% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here +9.3% 37% -4.0%
15% -1.3% 28% -13.3%
20% -10.9% 23% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$122 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46,983
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1253 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$779
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1478 / 1478
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$162
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1478 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $268 +$96 +36%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $795 +$137 +17%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $601 +$49 +8%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,429 +$123 +9%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $641 +$58 +9%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$3 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $862 +$236 +27%
DR Congo to win the second half? Jun 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,665 +$339 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,566 −$1,027 -66%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -100%
Aymen Hussein: 2+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,045 −$142 -14%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 +$26 +93%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$10 +55%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2,096 +$213 +10%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,077 +$67 +6%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $23 +$4 +16%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +62%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $162 +$30 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $135 +$21 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $655 +$55 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,051 −$158 -15%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $95 +$18 +19%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $71 +$184 +260%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $248 +$14 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +17%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $461 +$84 +18%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $7 +$8 +101%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 16 $7 +$8 +101%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $192 +$18 +9%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $41 +$10 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $51 −$34 -67%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $63 −$59 -93%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 16 $94 −$78 -83%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $694 −$694 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $981 −$981 -100%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $457 −$456 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $14 +$22 +158%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,035 +$23 +2%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $456 +$54 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $41 58m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 73¢ $268 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 85¢ $795 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $1,429 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $601 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 91¢ $641 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $11 3h
DR Congo to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $55 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 14¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 14¢ $7 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 14¢ $131 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 14¢ $18 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 14¢ $28 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 89¢ $47 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 38¢ $514 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 78¢ $862 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $9 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1,665 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,053 5h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 7h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 7h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 7h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 92¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL No 92¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 90¢ $2,090 17h
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $17 18h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $1,077 18h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 86¢ $23 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records