Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4155…d77a crypto 71 markets active 6d ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-36%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$62
world 40% −$92
other 11% −$37
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -50.7% -55.4% 23% 23% -47.4%
≤30d 13 -50.7% -55.4% 23% 23% -47.4%
≤90d 33 -37.5% -43.5% 27% 27% -45.2%
all 71 -41.6% -47.1% 18% 15% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 15% -47.2%
10% -52.2% 14% -52.3%
15% -56.8% 14% -56.9%
20% -61.0% 13% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage368d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -54%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$17 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 29 $16 +$24 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 29 $15 −$10 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 29 $7 +$7 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$12 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 29 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 21 $8 +$7 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 20 $12 −$12 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 17 $47 −$39 -83%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $74 −$28 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28? Jan 23 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31? Jan 23 $2 −$1 -35%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Jan 23 $4 −$2 -56%
Houthi strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 23 $9 −$8 -86%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026? Jan 23 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jan 22 $2 $0 -12%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 22 $3 −$1 -40%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 22 $3 −$1 -33%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Jan 22 $3 −$1 -20%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? Jan 22 $4 −$1 -17%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026? Jan 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 23? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records