Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4150…5bdd crypto 107 markets active 3d ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+0%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate94%93W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$89
crypto 29% +$3
other 0% +$5
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% −$2
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 99 +1.1% -8.6% 94% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 14% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 10% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.73 per $1 lost it wins $4.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses93 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)99 / 107
History coverage602d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 96¢ 91¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? Jun 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 25 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 10 $145 $0 +0%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 13? Apr 24 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 24? Mar 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? Mar 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $138 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 05 $3 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 05 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 8 Feb 09 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 2? Feb 05 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? Jan 30 $137 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 27? Jan 28 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 21? Jan 21 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 17? Jan 18 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? Jan 15 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $145 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 2d
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $94 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $141 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $147 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $140 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $145 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $143 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 56d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $149 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $146 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $142 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $144 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $135 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $142 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $139 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $136 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $143 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $146 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.47 · official $33.47 (match) · 450 history records