Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x414e…1da2 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$186 (-2%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%23W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$193
tech 21% +$3
other 12% +$3
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 24 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 4% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 4% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$767) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$323 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses23 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage192d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? Jun 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $226 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 28 $226 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 10 $224 +$2 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $772 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $770 +$2 +0%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Mar 26 $769 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Mar 18 $767 +$2 +0%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 18 $762 +$5 +1%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 15 $761 +$1 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons Mar 14 $760 +$1 +0%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $758 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $758 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $140? Feb 14 $757 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Thunder Feb 05 $323 −$323 -100%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Feb 03 $241 +$114 +47%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January? Jan 31 $966 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 19 above $30? Jan 25 $965 +$1 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $54 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $165 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $448 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $115 29d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? BUY No 100¢ $111 29d
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $226 45d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 100¢ $226 64d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 99¢ $224 77d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $772 85d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $770 91d
Spurs vs. Grizzlies BUY Spurs 100¢ $769 92d
Cavaliers vs. Bucks BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $767 100d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 99¢ $762 101d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $761 103d
Grizzlies vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $542 104d
Grizzlies vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $55 104d
Grizzlies vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $23 104d
Grizzlies vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $140 104d
Suns vs. Pacers BUY Suns 100¢ $758 105d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 100¢ $758 119d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $140? BUY Yes 100¢ $757 133d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 28¢ $27 142d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 27¢ $1 142d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 27¢ $11 142d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 27¢ $41 142d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 27¢ $7 142d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 27¢ $176 142d
Magic vs. Thunder BUY Magic 27¢ $60 142d
Pelicans vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 68¢ $241 145d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $966 147d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 19 above $30? BUY Yes 100¢ $965 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.16 · official $226.16 (match) · 61 history records