Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x414d…89d5 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$13
other 11% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 22 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 18% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 18% -7.4%
10% -16.3% 5% -16.3%
15% -24.4% 0% -24.4%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.47 per $1 lost it wins $47.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$1,001
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage203d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Brazil 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,001 +$1 (+0%)
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Miami Heretics 93¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? Feb 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? Feb 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-24? Feb 23 $1 $0 +6%
Jazz vs. Spurs Feb 23 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) Jan 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 19 $1 $0 +25%
Jazz vs. Spurs Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 27 $1 $0 +9%
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. North Texas Mean Green Dec 01 $1 $0 +4%
Rockets vs. Jazz Dec 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $335 +$33 +10%
James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Nov 30 $1 $0 +1%
Nets vs. Bucks Nov 30 $337 +$11 +3%
Spread: Saint Peter's Peacocks (-1.5) Nov 30 $1 $0 +1%
Georgia State vs. Old Dominion Nov 30 $1 $0 +4%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. West Virginia Nov 30 $1 $0 +6%
UCF vs. BYU Nov 30 $1 $0 +10%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 $0 +22%
Ball State vs. Miami (OH) Nov 30 $336 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $1,000 1h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $1,000 3h
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 93¢ $1 3h
Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 97¢ $1 116d
Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 97¢ $1 116d
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 97¢ $1 151d
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? BUY No 97¢ $1 151d
Jazz vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 90¢ $1 151d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY No 94¢ $1 151d
Jazz vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 90¢ $1 174d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 174d
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) BUY JD Gaming 85¢ $1 174d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Rockets 94¢ $1 201d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Rockets 94¢ $1 201d
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. North Texas Mean Green BUY North Texas Mean Green 96¢ $1 201d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 92¢ $1 201d
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 91¢ $335 201d
Nets vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 97¢ $336 202d
James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers BUY James Madison 99¢ $1 202d
Spread: Saint Peter's Peacocks (-1.5) BUY Dartmouth Big Green 99¢ $1 202d
Ball State vs. Miami (OH) BUY Miami (OH) 100¢ $336 202d
Georgia State vs. Old Dominion BUY Old Dominion 96¢ $1 202d
UCF vs. BYU BUY BYU 91¢ $1 202d
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. West Virginia BUY Texas Tech Red Raiders 94¢ $1 202d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 202d
Nets vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 82¢ $1 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.48 · official $1,001.48 (match) · 47 history records