Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x414b…f2b3 sports 706 markets active 1h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$36 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%534W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$264
14 days+$277
30 days+$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$317
other 30% −$75
finance 17% −$268
politics 6% +$226
world 2% −$59
culture 2% −$27
tech 2% −$99
weather 0% −$41
economics 0% +$7
crypto 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.1% -12.3% 77% 45% -0.7%
≤30d 62 -3.0% -12.3% 71% 44% -1.6%
≤90d 95 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 37% -3.2%
all 697 -4.4% -13.5% 77% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 32% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 12% -18.2%
15% -29.3% 5% -26.1%
20% -36.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses534 / 163
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions9
Markets (closed)697 / 706
History coverage703d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? Yes 49¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $60 +$7 +11%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $30 −$1 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $394 +$26 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $151 +$63 +42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $15 +$4 +24%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $523 +$130 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $20 −$14 -67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $351 +$43 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $20 +$3 +16%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $423 +$147 +35%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire May 31 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 31 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Krunal Pandya win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Prasidh Krishna win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $60 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nandre Burger win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 30 $60 +$1 +2%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $150 +$9 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $40 −$1 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $100 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 45m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 72¢ $50 54m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $54 58m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $53 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 94¢ $0 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 94¢ $67 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $10 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $50 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 43¢ $12 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $10 11h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Titouan Droguet 89¢ $61 11h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 87¢ $60 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $50 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $50 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $50 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $50 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $49 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $50 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $50 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL England 94¢ $29 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 94¢ $123 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 89¢ $30 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 33¢ $10 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 15¢ $4 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 13¢ $5 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka $17 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 38¢ $31 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $5 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.57 · official $202.57 (match) · 1622 history records