Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x414b…2374 crypto 900 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,786 (-32%) realized −$4,505 · open −$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%404W / 839L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,557
7 days−$3,557
14 days−$3,557
30 days−$3,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$464
world 31% +$57
other 13% +$932
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -99.0% -99.1% 1% 1% -55.7%
≤30d 348 -99.0% -99.1% 1% 1% -55.7%
≤90d 352 -97.6% -97.8% 2% 1% -44.3%
all 1243 -36.6% -42.7% 33% 28% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 28% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 22% -35.5%
15% -53.2% 17% -41.7%
20% -57.8% 12% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2,882
Realized−$4,505
Unrealized−$281
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses404 / 839
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1243 / 900
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 64¢ 62¢ $2,218 $2,132 −$87 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 44¢ $868 $661 −$208 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 82¢ $76 $89 +$14 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$16 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $957 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $956 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $619 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $608 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $13 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $414 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $17 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $1,470 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,304 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $76 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $75 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $156 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $21 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $54 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $5 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $54 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 54¢ $1 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $712 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 53¢ $211 42d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 89¢ $211 43d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $588 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 92d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,881.65 · official $2,881.65 (match) · 3500 history records