Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

41 0x4149…0e5f other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$69 (+46%) realized +$69 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown15%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+22.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+35.1%	+22.2%	67%	67%	+39.6%
≤30d	9	+35.1%	+22.2%	67%	67%	+39.6%
≤90d	9	+35.1%	+22.2%	67%	67%	+39.6%
all	9	+35.1%	+22.2%	67%	67%	+39.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.2%	67%	+39.6%
10%	+10.5%	67%	+26.2%
15%	-0.2%	67%	+14.0%
20%	-9.9%	56%	+2.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.73 per $1 lost it wins $6.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$69

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage5d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown15%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$26	−$1	-3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$17	+$9	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$35	+172%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	+$10	+64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$13	+$8	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$25	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	74¢	$25	18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	75¢	$26	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$17	23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$25	43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$15	47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$13	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $24.82 (match) · 18 history records