Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4149…ba5d other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$110 (+13%) realized +$200 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$516
7 days+$473
14 days+$473
30 days+$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$600
other 41% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +14.0% +3.1% 70% 48% +51.9%
≤30d 23 +14.0% +3.1% 70% 48% +51.9%
≤90d 23 +14.0% +3.1% 70% 48% +51.9%
all 23 +14.0% +3.1% 70% 48% +51.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 48% +51.9%
10% -6.7% 35% +37.3%
15% -15.8% 26% +24.1%
20% -24.0% 22% +11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$19 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 96¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $76 +$368 +481%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 +$133 +88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $91 +$52 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $444 37m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $25 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 22h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $1 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 97¢ $1 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 97¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $122 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 62¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 50 history records